I think the regular season results are generally pretty insulated from injury and reflect quality depth throughout the entire roster. However, I think this does have an interesting point - if ur team is predicted to be a bottom-half team, like around 70 wins, ur chances of making the playoffs without significant injuries to the other middle of the road teams (plus none to you) OR a move to improve, is significantly unlikely. That means that the actual variance is significantly higher.
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The unfortunate limitation of this is 1) movement of players, such as adding a free agent, trading, promoting, etc and 2) injuries. For those interested, the standard deviation of a season is about 6.36 wins - so roughly 68% of the time, a team will finish within six wins of their prediction. 0038% chance of finishing with 82 wins or more. If a team is predicted to win 65 games, they have a. If a team is predicted to win 72 games, they will finish above. How about those long shots? It works the other way.
Because of our high percentage of teams making the playoffs relative to the number of teams, this makes sense. So if we set the barrier of making the playoffs at 82 wins, a team with a predicted record of 92-60 will make the playoffs almost always. In other words, if a team is predicted to finish 20 wins above another team, that is a more or less a lock to happen. Another way to put that, a team will finish with their predicted wins, minus 10, 97% of the time. We can get within 10 wins of a team's record about 94% of the time. So let's go with that faulty assumption and move on. But, I don't have the research to predict injuries, nor do I want to go into the process of finding back-ups for each team. If we assume that injuries evenly affect each team, each year (which is completely false), then this would hold true. I haven't found a way to account for those yet, which is skewing the numbers since this is strictly based off of predicted production vs actual production.
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Once I have full team predictions, that will be a little easier.Ī note about this: it doesn't include injuries. So I've been doing some research into prediction intervals - for this purpose, mostly, with how much certainty can we predict that a team will make the playoffs? I'm still a step away from that I can get a prediction interval on wins for a team, but it's hard to translate that to playoffs specifically. Most interesting is that movement was more predictive than stuff. 5 isn’t terrible, and we can still get fairly accurate predictions with this. So I’m sure that I can calculate this and get more accurate results. I have a feeling that if xFIP was more readily available, I could accomplish this. A ten point bump in contact would make them an impressive 15% better - which works out to be around an extra ten runs (or 1 WAR).Ĭontinuing this to pitchers, unfortunately I was not able to get as high of a r2.
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Avoid K’s can lead to some productive outs or forcing errors, but is certainly the least valuable skill.Īs some sort of reference, if a player gets a 5 point bump in Avoid K, you can expect them to be 1% better. Previous wRC+ can gives us an indication if someone is a perennial over/underachiever. Then, it’s are we able to take pitches to get walks and work the count to get a better pitch to hit, as well as our ability to turn those singles into doubles and triples.
This is pretty intuitive - the ability to make contact drives everything else, as does how hard you can hit it (just to a lesser extent). Then eye, then gap (which was previously bottom), then previous wRC+, and finally avoid K’s. Power continues to be a decent second, roughly half the importance of contact. The rankings of importance were mostly the same, with contact first and foremost. The coefficients were mostly the same, though Gap got a nice bumped compared to both mine and Travis’s ratings. On the batters side, this bumped my r2 from. In addition, it normalizes everything compared to the rest of the league, so it should eliminate most of the ebbs and flows of the talent pool we have. The reason for this was I wasn’t getting park factors in the equation and I was worried with some of the extreme parks that we have. On the back of 10 years of sim stats with help from Lando and OU, I did more research, this time focused on wRC+ instead of wRAA.
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